The Middle East conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with civilians bearing the brunt as violence spreads across borders. What began as targeted strikes has now evolved into a widening confrontation, raising urgent questions about how far this escalation could go and who will pay the highest price.

Escalation Fuels Regional Instability

The growing conflict took center stage at the UN in Geneva, where experts warned that recent Israeli and US strikes on Iran, followed by retaliation from Tehran and allied groups, are accelerating a dangerous cycle.

This intensifying exchange, marked by missile and drone attacks as well as cross-border strikes, is pushing the region deeper into what experts described as a “spiral of conflict.” Meanwhile, attacks have expanded beyond initial targets, drawing in multiple countries and increasing fears of a broader regional war.

Civilian Suffering Mounts Across Iran

At the heart of the crisis lies a devastating humanitarian toll. Independent experts highlighted that ordinary citizens are now trapped between military offensives and internal repression.

“On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a devastating aerial campaign against Iran, ostensibly targeting military sites and nuclear facilities. In almost three weeks, these strikes have resulted in mounting reports of civilian casualties, including children,” said Sara Hossein, chair of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran.

She painted a grim picture of life inside the country, where civilians are struggling to survive amid destruction and uncertainty.

Presenting the mission’s latest report, Ms. Hossein highlighted the situation of ordinary Iranians “caught between a large-scale military campaign by two countries, the US and Israel, and ongoing repression by their own Government in Iran”.

Residential areas, several oil depots and a desalination plant have been struck or destroyed, causing “severe harm” to civilians, she said.

Deadly Strikes Shock Communities

One of the most harrowing incidents involved a school in southern Iran.

The rights expert also cited an airstrike that destroyed a school in Minab in southern Iran on the first day of the war, killing more than 168 people – “the vast majority of them girl students, many as young as seven years old”.

In addition, she warned about troubling signals from Washington.

She also voiced concern about “public statements from US officials suggesting that long-established rules of engagement do not apply in this conflict”.

Reiterating her findings, Ms. Hossein again stressed that civilians remain trapped in a worsening crisis.

Presenting the mission’s latest report to the Council, Ms. Hossein pointed to the ongoing plight of ordinary Iranian people, “caught between a large-scale military campaign by two countries, the US and Israel, and ongoing repression by their own government in Iran”.

Residential areas, multiple oil depots and a desalination plant have been “struck, damaged and destroyed”, causing “severe harm” to civilians, insisted the independent rights expert, who like all those appointed by the Council is not a UN staff member nor paid for her work.

Environmental Damage And Displacement Surge

The destruction has not been limited to human casualties. Critical infrastructure and environmental systems have also taken a hit, worsening already fragile conditions.

In addition to the Minab school strike, 1,000 civilians had been reportedly killed “with hospitals and World Heritage sites destroyed”, maintained the Council’s Special Rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato.

“Strikes on oil infrastructure have caused toxic environmental consequences…in a country that was already experiencing acute water shortages,” she continued.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis is expanding rapidly. Millions are now on the move.

Echoing widespread concerns about the deteriorating humanitarian crisis inside Iran since the outbreak of war, the Special Rapporteur noted that three million people are now displaced inside Iran, while “the reported absence of functional air raid sirens and bomb shelters in many urban areas” added to concerns about basic civilian protection during hostilities.

Iran Reports Rising Casualties

Iran’s representative at the UN delivered a stark update, underscoring the scale of the tragedy.

Responding to the independent experts’ reports to the Council, the Iranian Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, said that more than 1,300 people had been killed and more than 7,000 people injured, including a six-month-old baby. “The international community must not remain silent,” he insisted.

The war, now in its third week, has already spread across nearly a dozen countries, amplifying fears of long-term instability across the Middle East.

Gulf States Condemn Iranian Attacks

At the same time, Gulf nations pushed back strongly against Iran’s actions, signaling deepening regional divisions.

Speaking on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Jordan, Ambassador Abdullah Abdulatif Abdullah of Bahrain condemned strikes by Iran “against our countries, which have targeted civilians and critical infrastructure and civilian objects, endangering the lives of residents and the safety and security of the region.

The ambassador also reiterated that the Gulf council had welcomed the adoption of Security Council Resolution 2817 Condemning Iran’s attacks against its neighbours on 11 March, supported by 136 UN Member States.

“Our countries reject the content of the reports of Special Rapporteur and the Fact Finding Mission, characterizing these attacks as retaliatory or reprisal attacks,” he said, insisting that “there’s no legal justification for such assaults and there is no way to legitimize those illegal acts” under international law.

Global Alarm Over Widening Conflict

Concerns are no longer limited to the Middle East. Other nations are now voicing alarm as the crisis deepens.

Also addressing the Council, the Philippines echoed serious concerns by regional grouping ASEAN about the Middle East escalation.

“This spiral of armed conflict has already claimed many innocent lives, including those of children. This cannot and should not be normalized,” Member States heard.

Still, with no clear path to de-escalation, the question remains. How many more lives will be lost before the cycle of retaliation finally breaks?